Russian's central bank is working on measures to support the economy should oil prices fall by as much as a third or more, a senior official said on Wednesday, showing growing concern as the rouble slides and Western sanctions take a toll.
The International Monetary Fund also gave a pessimistic assessment of the Russian economy, halving its growth forecast for 2015 to just 0.5pc.
Interfax news agency quoted First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudayeva as saying the central bank was working on a "stress scenario" that was likely to envisage an oil price of $60 per barrel.
This would be added to three existing scenarios for the central bank's policy outlook for the next three years, and compares with a $100 assumption in the 2015-17 state budget adopted last week.
"The purpose of this scenario is to prepare a shock scenario to work out an action plan which we would implement to limit negative effects," Interfax quoted Yudayeva as telling a conference.
Oil and gas produce about a half of Russia's federal government revenues but already the price of Urals, Russia's chief crude blend, has fallen to around $92, while companies are struggling to raise capital due to Western sanctions imposed over Russia's actions in Ukraine.
The IMF's mission head to Russia, Antonio Spilimbergo, cited international tensions for the lower growth forecast. "Geopolitical uncertainties are having a big direct impact on the Russian economy," he told reporters.
The central bank's current base scenario also assumes the oil price will recover above $100 per barrel for the next three years. Even then, it predicts only modest economic growth.
Commenting on the bank's new stress scenario, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that his ministry didn't plan to adjust its own projections used for budget planning, which he said factored in a possible oil price as low as $80 per barrel.
"The forecast of the central bank somewhat differs from that of the government. There is nothing terrible about the fact that they consider a wider range of possible changes in price parameters," he said. "I consider ($60 oil) unlikely."
While playing down the likelihood that oil would fall so sharply, Siluanov has also warned repeatedly that a lower oil price is one of the biggest risks that the economy faces, requiring budgetary prudence.
Timothy Ash, head emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank in London, said the Russian economy would be in serious trouble if crude fell to $60. This would lead to "deep recession, large current account and fiscal deficits, huge levels of capital flight, and significant stress on banks", he said.
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