MH17: What will the report into the airliner's destruction reveal and will it change anything?

The Dutch Safety Board will present the results of a 15-month investigation into the MH17 air disaster on Tuesday - finally establishing how the airliner was destroyed over eastern Ukraine

Debris of flight MH17 at the crash site near the village of Hrabove

Tuesday will see the release of the Dutch Safety Board’s report into thedestruction of MH17, the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 that was destroyed over eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014.

The report will be launched in the Netherlands. Families of the 298 victims will be informed of the report’s findings at a closed briefing before the public presentation.

What is it?

The report is the culmination of a 15-month air accident investigation, led by the Netherlands but including dozens of other nations.

Largely based on analysis of the wreckage, flight recorders, and damage to victims’ bodies, it is essentially a technical investigation that addresses how MH17 was destroyed - but not why, or who by.

Ukrainian Emergency workers carry a victim's body at the crash site of flight MH17 near Hrabove

What will it say?

Governments involved in the investigation were handed copies of the report three months ago.

Leaks to the press suggest that the report will conclude that MH17 was destroyed by a surface to air missile. It may well identify the type of missile use, and possibly the direction from which it was fired.

A former chief of the Ukrainian team involved in the investigation last week told Dutch media that fragments of missile had been found in bodies of the victims.

An interim report released in September last year said only that MH17 was destroyed by “high energy objects” penetrating the fuselage.

What won’t it say?

What the report will not do is apportion blame or responsibility - that is the job of a parallel, criminal investigation led by the Dutch police, which is expected to run on into next year.

What’s the significance then?

If the report confirms that that MH17 was downed by a surface to air missile, it should lay to rest rival theories about the crash.

In particular, Russian media and officials have previously suggestedthat MH17 was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter jet using cannon fire or an air-to-air missile. Another, less widely disseminated theory, is that the airliner was blown up by a bomb placed on board by Western secret service officials trying to smear pro-Russian separatists.

People stand among the wreckage of the Malaysian airlines plane after it crashed

The angle of impact is also important. If the report concludes that the missile was fired from south-east of the crash sight - as several independent investigations have suggested - it will add weight to the suspicion that Russian-backed separatists shot down MH17 after mistaking it for a Ukrainian aircraft.

How will Russia react?

The Russian government received a copy of the draft report three months ago, along with other nations involved in the investigation, and has reportedly already raised objections.

According to a report in the New Straits Times, a Malaysian paper, Russian officials have complained that officials set out to find proof MH17 had been shot down, rather than assessing the evidence before reaching a conclusion. They also complained that information provided by Russia was ignored by investigators.

It is likely that Russia will question the outcome of the investigation, including by presenting alternative explanations for the crash.

Are there other explanations?

Almaz Antey, the Russian defence firm that makes Buk missiles, has previously argued that if it was a Buk missile, it was an old model not employed by the Russian armed forces and that it was fired from a position controlled by Ukrainian forces.

Toys and flowers are placed at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 near the village of Hrabove

The company now says it has gone so far as to blow up a derelict airlinerwith one of the missiles in order to test its theory. The results of this experiment will be released at a press conference in Moscow on Tuesday - the same day as the official report is released in the Netherlands.

Is this justice?

We’re still a long way from seeing anyone facing charges - let alone punishment - for the destruction of MH17.

The five-nation joint criminal investigation, which involves detectives from the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, and Ukraine, is not expected to report before the end of the year.

That investigation is expected to produce a detailed dossier of evidence for prosecutors to use to bring charges of murder and possibly war crimes against individual suspects.

But since Russia vetoed the creation of an international criminal tribunal at the United Nations in July, there is so far no court to try them at.

Diplomats say they are now looking for alternatives, possibly based on the Lockerbie tribunal, but it is still not clear what a final trial would look like.

Nor is it clear how those suspects could be apprehended or brought to trial if they are in separatist-held eastern Ukraine or Russia, which has repeatedly aired reservations about the investigation.

By Roland Oliphant