Analysis: Ukraine peace plan lies in tatters after rebel election

The birth of a rebel state in eastern Ukraine means that Vladimir Putin can choose whether to annex the industrial heartland of his neighbour

The rebels have used their own poll to install their latest leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, as “prime minister” of the self-styled “Donetsk People’s Republic.”

As recently as September, Ukraine’s leader proclaimed the end of the “most dangerous” stage of his country’s crisis. President Petro Poroshenko based his optimism on the Minsk ceasefire protocol, which supposedly laid out a path towards resolving the conflict with pro-Russian insurgents in the east.

That agreement now lies in tatters. By staging their own elections in the areas of Donbass region under their control, the pro-Russian rebels have humiliated Mr Poroshenko and driven a coach and horses through the Minsk deal.

Under point nine of that protocol, after all, the Donbass was supposed to hold elections under Kiev’s supervision before receiving autonomy within Ukraine. Instead, the rebels have used their own poll to install their latest leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, as “prime minister” of the self-styled “Donetsk People’s Republic”.

In the process, they have demonstrated how Mr Poroshenko’s government has lost control of a swathe of Ukraine. The rebel domain covers a large slice of the neighbouring regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, popularly known as the Donbass.

Far from being a marginal territory, this new statelet possesses most of Ukraine’s coal reserves, a big chunk of the country’s industry and a population of about three million. Without the Donbass, Ukraine’s crippled economy may never recover.

There is one more inescapable truth: rebel-held Donbass, having slipped out of Kiev’s control, is one move away from joining Russia. While the Western powers denounced the territory’s “illegal” election, the Kremlin swiftly recognised the outcome and praised the “mandate” of the region’s new leaders.

The Russian foreign ministry also urged talks between the insurgents and the “central government” in Kiev, suggesting that Moscow still regards the Donbass as part of Ukraine. But no-one is fooled. Union with Russia is the stated goal of the rebel leadership. If the newly elected “prime minister” of the “People’s Republic” submits a formal request to join Russia, how could the Kremlin refuse?

That leaves Mr Poroshenko on the horns of a cruel dilemma. Should he tolerate a situation whereby the industrial heartland of his country is on the verge of merging with Russia, or should he try to recapture the Donbass by force?

In reality, Mr Poroshenko has no viable military option. When he attempted to crush the rebellion last summer, Russia sent troops and tanks into Ukraine and rescued its client insurgents from defeat. On Tuesday, Mr Poroshenko was reduced to saying that he remained “committed” to a peace plan that has been shredded.

President Vladimir Putin, by contrast, has the luxury of being able to choose whether to annex the industrial heartland of his neighbour, or leave the map unchanged but still become de facto master of the Donbass. Once again, Mr Putin is firmly in control of events.

By David Blair